On the basis of these various computations, a net decrease in sawn lumber of about 4.5 million board feet annually and an increase in round material of about 4,000 cubic feet may be expected for all mining operations. Therefore, that annual consumption for 1944 to 1954 is estimated at 22.2 million board feet of sawn lumber and 3.7 million cubic feet of rounds.

Future normal consumption (1970) is estimated to be 10 percent higher, or 25 million board feet of sawn lumber and 4 million cubic feet of rounds, primarily to allow for further expectable increase in coal production and a comparable increase in the use of mining timbers.

VENEER AND PLYWOOD

In 1943 the equivalent of 4.4 million board feet was used in the manufacture of veneer, plywood, and matches for the domestic market. The production of plywood is a relatively new industry in Chile and growing rapidly, so that 1943 production, instead of an average of recent years, seems the best measure of current consumption. Araucaria and Coigue furnish most of the stock for plywood though other species, such as Tepa, Ulmo, Rauli, Roble, Lingue, and Olivillo, are also used. A considerable quantity of Alamo goes into the production of matches. Except for match stock, which comes largely from Province Group 2 (Coquimbo to Talca), practically all veneer and plywood logs come from Province Group 4 (Malleco to Llanquihue).

At present about 75 percent of the plywood sold locally is going into furniture. The construction industry has also found uses for it in many places, as in wall and ceiling surfacing material (to replace plaster and matched wood wall lining), wall panels and wainscots, stair panels, kitchen and bathroom cases, built-in utility furniture, partitions in offices and stores, and to surface flush panel doors. It is also used in the ceilings of autobuses, in trucks and street cars, and a great variety of minor items.

Up to the present the great bulk of domestic plywood has been manufactured as 3-ply stock standard size panels, in a limited number of thicknesses, and using only one kind of glue, casein. Plywood in thicker and stronger stock should find a ready local market in the construction field, in such articles as kitchen cases and cabinets, small doors, and floor, wall and ceiling panels. Hot-pressed phenolic resin bonded plywood could be used in exterior wall coverings, boat construction, vehicles, autobuses, sign boards, barrel staves and headings and in other ways. Under war conditions, however, with a ready export market taking about two-thirds of local production and a strong and growing home market, there has been little incentive to local producers to expand production into other thicknesses and other markets. Table 27 shows the manner in which plywood production has expanded over the last several years.

Domestic consumption has been increasing at a very rapid rate. As table 27 shows, the domestic market absorbed some 35,000 cubic feet more plywood in 1942 than 1941, and 37,000 cubic feet more plywood in 1943 than 1942. This increase has been obtained without supplying all of the thicknesses and types of plywood that can be sold. When production of present types equals the demand it will be entirely feasible to add other thicknesses and types that will reach an untouched market. Per capita consumption of plywood in Chile is still relatively low, about 0.8 board feet as against 5 board feet in the United States. It is estimated that in spite of probable stiff competition from fiber and hardboards, consumption will about double during the 1944 to 1954 decade. This would mean the use of 7.5 million board feet annually, ex

cluding about 1.3 million board feet of Alamo for matches, or consumption of plywood of 1.5 board feet per capita. If total plant capacity, estimated at 456,000 cubic feet or 17.5 million board feet equivalent, is reached during this period, the total output would be sufficient to supply domestic needs plus an increase for export of about 28 percent over present export requirements.

Future normal consumption (1970) should be still higher. It is estimated speculatively at three times present consumption or 2.5 board feet per capita annually, about half present per capita consumption in the United States. This would mean domestic consumption for plywood of about 11 million board feet annually, leaving about 6.5 million board feet for export, if existing plants are fully equipped and operating at capacity.

PULPWOOD

During the past three years some 9,700 tons of ground-wood pulp have been prepared annually from plantation-grown Insignis Pine consuming some 0.87 million cubic feet of wood. Most of the pulp and paper used in Chile in the past has been imported and this figure represents the total current consumption of domestic wood for pulp.

Consumption of locally-grown wood for pulp for the 1944-54 decade depends, therefore, not so much on increased consumption of paper or other pulpwood products, but to what degree Chile replaces imports with pulp and paper manufactured from locally-grown timber. It is being recommended that Chile install at least a 70-ton per day sulphate plant, based on the use of plantation-grown Insignis Pine. Ample wood is available to supply this demand. A 70-ton plant would require 3.87 million cubic feet of pulpwood annually, bringing requirements for 1944-54 up to approximately 4.7 million cubic feet.

Future normal consumption (1970) should be much higher. Chile's consumption of paper is now very low, about 20 pounds per capita compared, for example, with 199 pounds in the United States. It should rise to at least three times present consumption, and, excluding certain specialty papers, Chile should in the future be able to supply most if not all of this from local timber. This would take some 21 million cubic feet annually. This wood requirement might be several times larger if Chile can manufacture pulp from Insignis Pine and perhaps native hardwoods cheaply enough to enter world markets, at least those of neighboring countries.

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POLES

The average annual consumption of material for poles is 147,000 cubic feet.

Alerce provides 44 percent, Cipres de las Guaitecas, 41 percent, and Roble, 15 percent. Cipres is cut principally on the Guaitecas Islands, Chiloe Island and the neighboring mainland and is used for the most part only in smaller sizes. It is preferred to Alerce and commands a higher price but there is not enough cut to supply the demand. The Alerce is produced mostly in the areas west and south of Puerto Montt and in Continental Chiloe. An appreciable proportion, about 28 percent of the Cipres and Alerce poles produced, are exported.

Some expansion of requirements during the next 8 years is expected by two large companies, which would increase the average consumption for this period from 147,000 cubic feet to 169,000 cubic feet. In addition the proposed construction project of the Empresa Nacional de Electricidad will, according to present plans, require a vast supply of pole material over a period of about eight years. If this program materializes it would cause an overdrain on the pole-sized material in the species now commonly used and necessitate the use of other species. If a treating plant were available, treated Insignis Pine poles might be used. Pressure-treated poles in the United States have a life expectancy of up to 40 years, while butt-treated poles of durable species last from 9 to 12 years. Data regarding service life of untreated and butttreated poles used in Chile are not available but, on the basis of experience elsewhere, pressure-treated poles last much longer. Consumption for new construction during the next decade would obscure the replacement factor, which need not be considered here.

The total expanded requirements will raise the average annual consumption from 169,000 to 500,000 cubic feet for the decade 1944 to 1954. Ultimate consumption will depend on the type of poles used and the treatment given. The planned electrification program should create a considerable future demand for poles. Future pole requirements (1970) will be at least several times present requirements and are estimated at 400,000 cubic feet annually.

LUMBER AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT

Chile has had for many years a substantial export market for lumber, ties, poles, and shingles. During the last several years Chile has also been exporting considerable quantities of veneer and box shook. Census statistics for 1936 to 1941, inclusive, excluding abnormally large shipments to Germany just prior to the war, indicate an average export of 11.2 million board feet of lumber of which 2.5 million board feet is box shook, 0.3 million board feet of ties, shingles, and poles, and 7.8 million board feet of veneer on the basis of 1943 figures. This totals 19.3 million board feet. A large number of species were exported but the bulk of shipments were Rauli, Laurel, Coigue, and Roble. Considerable quantities of Insignis Pine have also been exported in the last 2 years.

Requirements for export during the next decade are probably the most speculative of all the highly speculative future values. The best basis will be the statistics now being compiled by the Committee on Forestry of the United Nations Interim Commission on Food and Agriculture. This committee is preparing a comprehensive survey and analysis of world r supplies and requirements as a guide to world trade in forest s in the postwar period.

In any event, there is every reason to believe that the postwar market for lumber and lumber products will be very good. The war has resulted in heavy overcutting and destruction in forested regions throughout the world. Earlier estimates place European needs, aside from her own production, at 7 to 10 billion board feet a year. Almost all of this will have to come from the Western Hemisphere whose normal export does not exceed 3 to 5 billion board feet to all other continents, Europe included. Domestic postwar demands in Canada and the United States will be high and it is questionable as to how much of this added demand can be met. High quality material cut from old, overmature stands, suitable for the production of clear, high-grade lumber and veneer, will be particularly scarce. Chile's existing forest is largely of this character. These forests, properly managed, will sustain a cut considerably in excess of current or expectable future domestic requirements. The vast, unexploited tropical hardwood regions of the world are not readily accessible from an economic standpoint and difficult to operate for many reasons, including adverse climate and a great complexity of species, many of unknown quality. Chile, therefore, with a small but substantial body of virgin, good-quality hardwoods, in a temperate region economically accessible, with reasonable transportation developments, seems in a particularly good position to profit during the postwar period when construction demands for wood and wood products of all kinds will probably be greater than past export sources can supply. The main question seems to be can Chile supply lumber and other products in the quantity, quality, and at a low enough price to enable her to compete in world markets? The prospects seem reasonably bright for export markets in many items, particularly lumber, veneer and veneer logs, and pulp. The profit and risk margin now present in most forest products items indicates the possibility of making price adjustments necessary to enter world markets, particularly if this margin can be widened by more efficient production methods on larger operations aimed at least partly at export markets. The prospects of supplying neighboring countries, particularly Argentina, Peru, and Bolivia, are especially promising. The world demand elsewhere should tend to reduce or eliminate in these countries competition from other wood exporting countries for some years in the postwar period just as it has during the war years, though perhaps not to as marked a degree.

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Nevertheless the difficulties in making necessary production and price changes are so great (see Forest Industries section) that a servative estimate of 20 million board feet of lumber and 5 million board feet of other products for export has been used for the 1944-1954 decade. This assumes an export market for lumber of about 50 percent more than at present, about the same market as at present for box shook, half the present market for veneer, and double the present market for ties, poles, and shingles. Future normal consumption (1970) is estimated at the 1944-54 figure. If developments are favorable it might be several times larger.

SUMMARY OF TIMBER REQUIREMENTS: PRESENT AND FUTURE

Estimated timber requirements including export are summarized in table 28. The values in this table, except for those showing tree volume, are in terms of the volume of product consumed, including material obtained from dead trees and waste, and are not directly comparable with cutting depletion values which are in terms of tree volume.

They show that present consumption, including export, is about 302 million board feet and 158.1 million cubic feet, or the equivalent of 250 million cubic feet, tree volume, of which about 78 percent, or 196 million cubic feet, is primary depletion, that is, from standing live trees.

It is estimated that consumption in 1944-54 will be 268 million cubic feet, tree volume, of which 227 million cubic feet is primary; and in the future (1970) 362 million cubic feet, tree volume, of which 326 million cubic feet is primary. Compared with 1943 figures, this is equivalent to an increase in primary consumption of about 16 percent for the decade 1944-54 and 67 percent by 1970. The more important predicted increases are due to expected greater consumption of lumber and other products in construction.

These speculative values serve to emphasize the observation made under Forest Depletion, namely that annual depletion from cutting is relatively small in relation to depletion from other causes, especially fire, and that the forest is capable of supporting a much larger cut on a sustained basis if fire losses are reduced to a reasonable level. In the section Availability of Timber for Use, table 25 shows that if fire losses are reduced to the extent believed practical about one-fifth of current losses the forest can sustain indefinitely depletion of two and one-half times its present volume, or 490 million cubic feet annually. This is far in excess of foreseeable domestic and normal export requirements. Fire protection accompanied by the forest planting program now under way would permit a cut 21 to 40 years hence of 547 million cubic feet, some 52 percent in excess of foreseeable demands without a strong export market. On the other hand, even with the contemplated planting program, the cubic volume available 21 to 40 years hence will be barely sufficient to meet the minimum needs of that period and insufficient for adequate national requirements unless fire protection is assured. In the more distant future the timber supply would be inadequate without suitable fire protection.