It is believed that a practical system of forest protection can reduce annual fire losses to about 0.2 percent of present timber volume or to about one-fifth of the current volume of loss. If this were accomplished it would be possible to increase the cut of sawtimber to two and one-half times present production and permanently maintain it at this level. The corresponding forest balance sheet possible under fire protection is shown in table 25 and figure 13. Annual growth may be expected to decrease slightly over the next 20 years, owing to loss of growing stock. By the same token windfall, disease, and insect losses could logically be expected to decrease somewhat, but none is assumed in order to keep the computation consistent with that employed in the previous balance sheet. If fire losses are controlled to the extent believed practical, annual net forest drain can be reduced from 1,748 million board feet to 930 million, at the same time permitting the increase of sawtimber production to two and one-half times present output as explained above. Over a 20-year period such a saving would mean a 30,000 million boardfoot increase in the supply of sawtimber available for use on a longtime basis. An excess of drain over growth of 930 million board feet, as indicated on the balance sheet possible under fire control, is entirely compatible with sustained yield, provided cutover areas are adequately restocked and fires are controlled. If these two provisions are fulfilled, young forests will eventually increase, rate of mortality will decline, thus permitting the balancing of forest growth and depletion at a favorable level. The wood supply could be still further increased by institution of improved timber cutting methods. Stand structure of many natural forests indicates that selective cutting is the most effective method for the preservation of a favorable growing stock and for the recovery of timber values. The possibilities of increasing timber supply through adoption of improved cutting and regeneration methods deserves detailed study. EFFECT OF FOREST PLANTING PROGRAM Up to this point in consideration of the future timber supply, it has been assumed that the plantation area would remain practically constant. This assumption is contrary to fact; the present planting program is geared to increase the area of forest plantation substantially. Annual production of planting stock is roughly estimated at 35,000,000 trees. Assuming that 70 percent of these trees survive outplanting, and that 2,500 are planted per hectare, this planting stock production would be sufficient to forest 9,800 hectares annually. It Assuming further that present plantations operate on an average rotation of 30 years, it would require an annual planting of only about 4,800 hectares to perpetuate them, even if no reliance were placed on natural reproduction. If natural reproduction were effective on one third of the areas cut over, the annual planting required to maintain the present plantation area would be only about 3,200 hectares. would thus appear that the present planting stock is sufficient to enable an annual increase of 6,600 hectares on the net plantation area. At this rate, planted forest 20 years hence would total the present area of 143,500 hectares plus 132,000 hectares increase, or 275,500 hectares in all. This represents an increase in plantation area of 92 percent in two decades. On the same basis present nursery capacity could eventually increase the plantation area to 450,000 hectares and maintain it at that size. Table 26. Estimated remaining plantable areas (in thousand hectares), by type of ground and province group If this hypothetical area of plantation averaged two-thirds the productivity of the present plantings, the annual yields available from them would equal 196 million cubic feet, or precisely the present volume of cut from all forests. In board feet, the possible cut would total 726 million, exceeding the present total by a large margin. On the same basis the yield theoretically available from plantations 20 years hence would total 120 million cubic feet, or 445 million board feet. These figures amount to 61 percent and 96 percent, respectively, of the present cubic and saw timber cut from all forests. According to compilations made in the office of the Direccion General de Agricultura, a more than ample area is available for the establishment of the plantations anticipated above. Thus, as shown in table 26, it was estimated that there remain 3.3 million hectares of plantable area. No claim is made for precise accuracy of the figures given in table 26. Unfortunately they do not indicate what portion of the plantable areas might be submarginal for forestation or which might require irrigation for survival. However, even after liberal discount for both of these factors, there is no lack of plantable area for the forest plantation program. There is a possible deficiency in the planting program, however, that might easily be remedied. Present planting stock production roughly 35,000,000 trees, consists of 86 percent Insignis Pine, 10 percent Eucalyptus and 4 percent other species. For Eucalyptus this would mean an annual estimated production of 3,500,000 plantable trees sufficient to forest about 1,400 hectares, or an area equivalent to one-thirtieth of the present Eucalyptus plantation. Assuming that two-thirds of all future Eucalyptus reproduction on existing plantations is by sprout, the planting stock available would be sufficient to maintain the present plantation area on a 10-year rotation basis, but not sufficient to expand it, as is apparently needed, particularly in Province Group 2. SUMMARY If existing trend continues, the timber volumes physically available for use each year are as follows: Present cut from the natural forest could of course be increased without controlling fire losses, but if this is done, the total volume available from this source will be proportionately more rapidly depleted. Under forest fire protection, the timber volume that would be physically available annually on a sustained basis is much greater, as shown by the following tabulation: The natural forest lands, the forest plantations and plantable areas in Chile are, potentially, tremendously productive on a permanent basis. If managed effectively, they can afford her population a forest economy of abundance an annual volume of timber products at least several times that now consumed. ECONOMIC AVAILABILITY The portion of total timber volume that can now be exploited at a profit is of the greatest immediate importance. The portion that can probably be exploited profitably when the timber now economically available has been utilized is also of key significance to the future of Chile's forest industries. Economic availability of standing timber is dependent upon such a multiplicity of factors that a discussion of this phase for a territory as large as the forest region of Chile must of necessity be of a general nature and based largely on relative conditions. For the purpose of this report, economically available timber is defined as that which, under present conditions of costs and markets and with normal progress in operating methods and equipment, can be expected to be produced at a cost which will return a reasonable allowance for stumpage, profit and risk. In order to make this determination, cost and selling value information was collected from numerous lumber producers. The data available are insufficient to establish any averages of costs over a period of years, and therefore the costs and selling prices for the year 1943 were employed. An average for the 1943 data has been compiled, and the results are indicated in the following tabulation for a theoretical sawmill operation. It is assumed that this mill, having a production of 20,000 board feet per day for 100 days a year, is located 25 kilometers by road from Lago Ranco. This is a territory which possesses large supplies of virgin timber. It is also one in which lumber production is already established, and hence the estimates of costs are not entirely speculative. Costs Tree to sawmill... Milling, overhead, and general expense.. Truck haul 25 km. at 4.6 per thousand board feet per km. Pesos per thousand board feet 175 175 350 35 115 500 725 Average selling value at station.. Margin for profit, stumpage and risk (based on sale at rail siding).. 225 Additional costs to put lumber on market in Santiago... |
